Crude oil rallied close to $53 and now dropped below $52. Gold dropped below $1300 and Silver below $17. We will make an update to the 26 September intraday forecast of Commodities – Gold, Crude and Silver.
29 September Crude oil Elliott wave analysis
In the last update, we expected the rally to continue close to $53 before price drops. A larger degree triangle is in sight. Price just completed the d-leg. If the triangle will hold, a drop is expected to around $45 (to complete wave-e of the triangle before price breaks hugely upside. The chart below was used in the last update.
Will the rally extend to $53?. It’s much likely. A dip could happen soon to complete the larger degree triangle unless the bullish momentum spikes above $53-$54
Price made the rally as expected and now probably will also drop as expected as the chart below shows.
We expect Crude to drop to complete wave-E of the larger triangle. Price could drop to $45-$47 in the coming weeks. Once the triangle completes and holds, a strong breakout upside is very likely.
26 September Silver Elliott wave analysis
Silver dropped below $17 and looking likely to complete an impulse wave down close to a support level. A 3-wave correction upside is now closer than before. The chart below was used in the last update.
If this wave count is correct, wave v low (in blue) should be held and price rallies with a corrective wave upside. Looking for a bearish opportunity at the end of the correction will be ideal. Alternatively, the rally to 17.24 could still be part of wave iv (in blue) and price making a dip down to 16.53. If this scenario plays out, a 3-wave correction upside should still be expected and a bullish intraday opportunity.
The alternative scenario played out and the alternative view in the last sentence above will now be ideal. The chart below shows what could happen next.
There is a support at 16.53 which price may test before going upside provided there is no breakout as shown above. If price breaks above the yellow trendline, there are strong chances that a 3-wave rally will be seen to 17.5 or above.
29 September Gold Elliott wave analysis
Gold broke upside with a good bullish momentum after completing a double zigzag, but the bearish momentum quickly took over and price dipped below 1286.86 technical level. A triple zigzag is in the card now. The chart below was used in the last update.
Price broke out of the corrective channel and now quickly making a pullback. The first confirmation is done. The second and final confirmation is a break above 1316.35. This view will be invalid if price breaks below 1286 corrective wave bottom.
The bullish strength didn’t last enough to break above 1316.35 for final confirmation after a good break above the trendline. The chart below shows the possibility of a the pattern morphing into a triple zigzag.
The triple zigzag pattern was projected to end at 1276.23 (present price) or lower to 1265.88 before breaking upside. Price is presently at the wave (x) region of the last rally. This could also serve as a support level.
Let’s know your thoughts in the comment box below.