24 October Crude Oil Elliott wave analysis

Since the February-June Crude Oil rally last year when price moved from $26 to $51, the black commodity has been moving in a range. From early March 2016 till now, the highest price has been $56 and the least is $38. Technically, we have spotted the possibility of a long term triangle congestion. The following looks at how price could react in the coming weeks  and months.

Last week price rallied from $49 back to the $52 level and has stayed sideways since then. Our last update had the possibility of this triangle at sight. If this would happen, a last dip toward $45 is expected. Will the recent rally, if price is unwilling to complete triangle, soar above $56 roof instead?. The chart below was used in the last update.

12 oct elliott wave analysis

Crude Oil Elliott wave analysis, M30

A strong dip is still highly probable to $47 or even deeper to $45 before the bullish resumption. Alternatively, if price rallies to break above $51.4 top, then it could test the $52.8 top and our triangle will be considered truncated. We favor the bearish continuation until price proves otherwise.

A corrective dip was expected downside in the form of a zigzag pattern to complete the last leg of the triangle. Price rallied further instead but still keeps below $52. The chart below shows the congestive triangle pattern about to complete on the daily time frame.

24 october crude oil elliott wave analysis

Crude oil Elliott wave analysis, D1

If this wave count is correct, we would see a dip toward $45 as price continues to be resisted at $52. If the triangle pattern completes as expected, a strong rally could happen toward $60 or more as price completes the bullish correction that started early 2016. If this forecast doesn’t happen but price breaks above $56 instead without the last dip, we should expect the rally to continue to $60-$70. Follow up with our intraday analysis on Crude Oil and other major commodities like Gold and Silver. Stay tuned for the next update.

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